Opinion | The author's opinion does not necessarily reflect Sarah Palin's view.
Pollster Frank Luntz highlighted Trump’s competitive polling against Biden in reliably Democratic Minnesota, despite Trump’s recent felony convictions.
Luntz emphasized the significance of Trump’s close polling numbers in a traditionally Democratic state.
He particularly highlighted the importance of key states such as Arizona and Nevada with large Latino populations as indicators for the upcoming election.
'Oh My God': Frank Luntz Impressed Trump 'Making It Close' Race In 'Reliable' Dem State After Conviction pic.twitter.com/k8W5MJFRJo
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) June 19, 2024
“To me, it’s not that Donald Trump is winning so big in Iowa. That’s not the story. It’s that he’s making it close in Minnesota. Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state. It votes Democrat in every presidential campaign. In poll after poll, I see Trump within two or three points in Minnesota. I don’t think the media understands exactly what’s going on right now,” Luntz said.
“Yes, Trump dropped a few points after being found guilty on 34 felony counts. But remember this, that would have destroyed any candidate as recently as 10 years ago,” he added. “And the fact that Donald Trump is still even with, or in some cases leading, Joe Biden after being found guilty of 34 felonies, oh my God, that is so significant.”
“The Latino vote, 20%, can be 20% of the electorate,” Luntz said in March of 2024. “To me, that’s the deciding vote, and if they switch in Arizona, in Nevada, I would expect it to be happening nationwide, so watching those two states is my indicator of what’s going to happen in 2024.”
Additionally, CNN analyst Harry Enten noted a significant rise in black American support for Trump, highlighting unprecedented levels of support that could impact battleground states like Georgia and Wisconsin, showcasing a shift in voting patterns compared to historical norms.
“I keep looking for this to change, to go back to a historical norm, and it, simply put, has not yet,” Enten said. “So this is the margin, or, Biden and Trump among black voters, compare where we were at this point in 2020, compare to where we are now.”
“At this point, look at this. In 2020, Joe Biden was getting 86% of the African American vote. Look at where it is now. It’s 70%, that’s a 16-point drop, John,” he added. “And more than that, it’s not just that Joe Biden is losing ground. It’s that Donald Trump is gaining ground. You go from 7%, single-digits at this point in 2020, to now 21%, and again, John, I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal, and I don’t see it yet in the polling of anything right now.
“Look at black voters under the age of 50,” Enten said. “Holy cow, folks, holy cow. Look at this. Joe Biden was up by 80 points among this group back at this point in 2020; look at where that margin has careened down. It’s now just, get this: 37 points. That lead has dropped by more than half.
“I’ve just never seen anything like this. I’m like speechless because you always look at history and you go, ‘okay, this is a historic moment.’ If this polling is anywhere near correct, we’re looking at a historical moment right now, where black voters under the age of 50, which have historically been such a big part of the democratic coalition, are leaving in droves,” he added.
